Beware, this article will change your mindset and real estate investments, so read it carefully while we reject the false rich trap of real estate in Pakistan. Read this carefully and if you have any questions please comment and ask.
After nearly 10 years of going through various cycles of real estate myself, I’ve realized that most of us don’t create any real wealth. Do we live in a paradise of fools and amass false wealth? This prompted me to do some research and analysis of the previous 15 years of investment cycles to find out what exactly we are doing wrong.
During our search for the truth about real estate, we learned that there is a huge difference between returns in USD and PKR. While you may think you made money in PKR, this may not be true for USD. Eventually, almost every other thing in your life and your purchasing power depends on the USD and not on PKR. This means that if your wealth does not grow by the USD, then you are not actually getting richer.
USD is therefore one of the most important factors of wealth creation. This is especially true for foreigners who invest in USD and expect to take their returns in USD.
The Dollar vs. PKR and Real Estate Investments
Just to understand how important this aspect was, we will choose Phase 6, 1 Channel plot in DHA Lahore as an example and compare its price in various years since 2005 in USD. Most real estate investments follow a similar pattern with small variations.
Year 2005
1 x USD = 60 PKR
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 6 in 2005 = 9 Million ($ 150,000)
Year 2010
1 x USD = 80 PKR
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 6 in 2010 = 6.6 Million (USD 82,500)
Year 2013-2014
1 x USD = 100 PKR
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 6 in 2013 = 15 Million ($ 150,000)
Year 2016
1 x USD = 105 PKR
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 6 in 2016 = 24 Million (USD 228,571)
Year 2019
1 x USD = 160 PKR
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 6 in 2019 = 28 Million (USD 175,000)
Year 2021
1 x USD = 172 PKR
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 6 in 2021 = 42 Million (USD 244,000)
Long Term Business
Looking at the USD chart for Phase 6, 1 Channel plot is very clear that long-term trading is almost worthless. I know a lot of people who have kept plots in these phases for over a decade and although you may have overcome inflation or PKR depreciation, you have not created significant wealth.
Most people have this idea that the longer they keep a plot or file, the more fruitful it is. Unfortunately, I hate to report this bad news, which is not the case. At least the property in Pakistan does not adhere to that law. In 2005 the plot which was at USD 150000 is only USD 244000 today. Even buying it in 2019 gives you a much better ROI instead of buying it 14 years earlier in 2005.
Actually buying the phase 6 plot in 2010, then selling it in 2016 and buying it again in 2019, and selling it again now in 2021 would be really quite lucrative.
The reason that devalues a long-term business is that someone who has held the same property for 15 years earns much less money than someone who has held the same property for 10 years. This same aspect makes long-term trading riskier, which can eat away at your wealthy creative endeavors like a termite.
Business Plots and Files in Speculative Cycles
The speculative trading cycles are the next option that most investors choose. It’s a really good choice but with just two big problems:
- You never know what the future holds. So everything you do is based on either guesswork or information that may not work exactly the way you want it to. It’s much easier to just look at the past data and see where you should have invested but planning it for the unknown future is not for everyone.
- If you can’t execute or the market doesn’t work as you hoped, you may be sucked in for a very long recession period.
Speculative trading is much easier said than done and it wasn’t until 2016 when the recession hit the real estate that investors realized what they were doing wrong. A considerable portion of investment has stalled in some areas because some investors felt it was worth trying to wait and hold on. These areas included Broadway Phase 8 commercial, residential plots in various places such as Phase 7, 8, and 9 of DHA Lahore, Malikpur, Shivpur 4 marl commercial files of DHA in Phase 8 ex Park View, and later on Gwadar.
As a result with a huge share of investments stuck in recession, investors have failed to seize new opportunities that have emerged from 2017 to 2020 such as indigo highs, Goldcrest Mall, DHA Peshawar, Downtown Mall and DHA Multan.
Although the return on investment was much better than long-term trading, but still not very impressive, as it included long periods of recession with zero to negative growth.
What does the data say?
For an argument, let’s assume that everything went well and being the smart guy who is Mr. X, he kept money safe in the bank from 2005-2010 and then invested in phase 6 plots in 2010, then took an exit in 2016, and then took entry again in 2019 and has taken an exit now when the average plot price is at 42 Million.
To achieve this, Mr. X needed to make seven decisions during these 16 years. These included selling in 2005 and then investing in reliable locations to earn at least 10% a year. Taking an exit from wherever your money was and then reinvesting in 2010 in real estate. Repeating the same thing again from 2016 to 2019 and then finally taking an exit in 2021.
The location for an error is almost nil, if Mr. X had taken an exit in 2013, it could have gone awry. Similarly, if Mr. X could not take an exit in 2016 the results would be different.
Finally, it was also important to carry out a profitable business during the recessionary periods between 20015-2010 and then in 2016 to 2020. Timely exit from these investments and regaining entry into real estate should be surgically accurate.
How many of you are confident that you can read the market and do this type of business in the future?
The Good Old Rental Income
Rental income has always been considered a very essential and important source of income. However, not many people believe that it can enrich you as a speculative business. Some general problems you may encounter with rental income are:
- If you do not invest in the right rental property, your capital gains may suffer.
- Houses in Pakistan are the worst form of rental income due to huge depreciation and only 3 to 4% rent per year.
Choosing a rental property that would give you at least a 6% rental yield and some good capital gains over the years can be a challenge, but it is much easier to execute than a speculative business. In addition, you now have the option to invest in real estate that can offer an 8 to 10% return on annual rent above your initial investment.
Rental cash flows may seem minimal when you start, but over time they build up and give speculative traders a run for their money. It won’t be wrong to say that slow and steady wins the race because you have a much better chance of being rich if you invest in rental properties instead of plots of land.
What does the data say?
Now for the sake of argument let’s say, Mr. A, who is not as wise as Mr. X and was not sure if he can pull off that miraculous 16-year cycle with such precision. That’s why he decided to buy a property that gave him regular cash flows and average capital gains.
Mr. A has invested € 9 million in wolf ownership, which has given him an average of 10% in annual capital gains and 6% in rental income, which has increased by 10% a year. Ultimately, he invested his rental income in assets similar to where Mr. X kept his money during recessions to make 10% profits a year on them and the results will surprise you.
YES, it is quite true that Mr. A made almost the same amount of money as Mr. X and without ever having to go into the complications and risks that Mr. X took.
The magic actually happened because of the compounding effect on the rental income, this is one factor we never consider when we discuss rental properties.
The 16 years of rental income, which started at just 540000 a year, ended at 4 crores when accumulated and put together at only 10% a year. This is where most of you do your math wrong and only calculate the rental income and do not consider the impact of profits on your rental income.
The way forward
The speculative business cycles of real estate and rental income are almost equal when creating real wealth. Renting is an easier and more stable way to secure your success compared to speculative trading. You can certainly mix them both or opt for rent alone, but I would never recommend just opting for a speculative trade.
Lesson learned
- Rental projects are always green investments that will give you good profits in almost any market.
- Rental properties are the backbone of your real estate investment.
- Plots and files should be invested only for speculative business cycles.
- Long-term keeping of plots and files is counterproductive in general and has not rewarded investors in the last 15 years.
- For better chances of success, rent is much more effective than any other investment in real estate.
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