USD and Pakistan real estate enjoy a very complicated relationship. Although they are a very small factor especially for the emigrants, not much is available according to research. However, if you understand how they affect each other, you can probably make a lot more money than you usually do. It is often understood that a rise in USD price is directly responsible for real estate growth. In 2018, when the dollar gained 35% in record time, real estate was also expected to grow. It usually functions as a hedge, however, it took almost 2 years and a global pandemic to realize real estate.
Today while house prices are about 30 to 50% higher than year 2018, in dollars the prices are similar to that of 2018. Now it is time to find out if this correlation has existed in the past or not and how it works usually plays out.
Taking DHA Lahore as an example, let’s look at the data we have:
USD – PKR exchange rate in 2005 -2007 = 60
2008 = 70
2009 – 2011 = 80 to 85
2012 = 90
2013 to 2017 = 100 to 105
2018 = 121
2019 to 2021 = 155
For the purpose of this study, we calculated average prices of DHA Lahore Phase 5, 6 and 7.
Year 2005
1 x USD = 60 PKR
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 6 in 2005 = 8 Million (150,000)
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 7 in 2005 = 7 Million ($ 116,666)
Year 2011
1 x USD = 80 PKR
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 5 in 2010 = 10.2 Million ($ 127,500)
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 6 in 2010 = 6.6 Million (82,500)
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 7 in 2010 = 4 Million ($ 50,000)
Year 2013-2014
1 x USD = 100 PKR
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 5 in 2013 = 20 Million ($ 200,000)
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 6 in 2013 = 15 Million (150,000)
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 7 in 2013 = 10 Thousand ($ 100,000)
Year 2016
1 x USD = 105 PKR
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 5 in 2016 = 29 Million ($ 276,190)
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 6 in 2016 = 24 Million (228,571)
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 7 in 2016 = 14.6 Million ($ 139,047)
Year 2019
1 x USD = 160 PKR
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 5 in 2019 = 35 Million ($ 218,000)
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 6 in 2019 = 28 Million (175,000)
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 7 in 2019 = 13.7 Million ($ 85,625)
Year 2021
1 x USD = 160 PKR
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 5 in 2021 = 40 Million ($ 250,000)
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 6 in 2021 = 36 Million (225,000)
Average price of DHA Lahore Phase 7 in 2021 = 22.7 Million ($ 141,875)
Summary
Looking at the above data, it is clear that profits in USD vary depending on the cycle you are looking at. Keeping your property for long periods of time is usually not a very profitable option. Smaller cycles with a stable USD PKR period are where house prices have really offered good returns.
It is also clear that an increase in USD-PKR rate does not have an isolated effect on house prices. For example during the period from 2006 to 2011 house prices fell while USD – PKR rose from 60 to 80. However, the house prices actually cover the gap.
USD and Pakistan Real Estate 2021
While the real estate market is growing according to PKR, it has barely managed to gain the lost glory of the year 2016 in terms of USD. Rather in most areas, it is still struggling as Phase 5, which is lower in terms of USD than its 2016 high.
If you have invested dollars in Pakistan in the last 10 years and you have been consistent then no matter what happened, you have earned some money. Not as much as you thought you had or believed.
That is why renting generating real estate is the key to creating wealth. Plots really aren’t the way to go if you want to create real wealth in real estate. It is the effect of drops of the rents that enriches you, and not a piece of land that lies there for all eternity.
The dilemma is that anyone who invested in Plots in 2019 or 2020 is now at least 30 to 40% richer. Where those who invested in plots in 2015 or 16 or earlier are now just breaking through.
On the other hand, everyone who has invested in rental real estate during these times enjoys their wealth growth regardless of the time frame.
Lesson learned?
When the dollar rises and real estate falls, it’s time to buy plots. However, if you want to make money regardless of when you are investing in rental generic real estate, it is the only evergreen solution.
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